Covid-19: No it won’t end in
India by early October!

A presentation deck (dated 13 Jul) by Bhaskaran Raman et al at my alma mater IIT Bombay claims that India will see the end of Covid-19 in 2.5 months. Not surprisingly, natural human tendency to lap up anything positive has resulted in this “study” already becoming viral on WhatsApp and other social media platforms.The “study” uses Levitt’s metric H(t) = X(t)/X(t-1), X(t) being cummulative count until day t (of Covid cases, or Covid deaths). IT uses the death statistics, but makes no use of the cumulative case count.So I decided to validate the study (or otherwise) by using cumulative case count (all-India). And what do I find?

Covid 19